Tech and Entertainment 信息技术与娱乐业

The intertwined relationship between information technology, the generation and dissemination of information, and the industries that rely on the production or spread of information has been one that underpinned the developmental patterns of human societies. When the printing press was introduced, the monopoly of information, controlled previously by the Catholic Church, shattered into pieces. The ensuing age of rapid publication and distribution of books and other materials brought resounding consequences for Europe and beyond. A more recent beneficiary of information technology development has been the entertainment industry. This expanding industry, with components ranging from Disney princesses and YouTube personalities to Bruno Mars and Taylor Swift, weaves a complex yet powerful emotional web that permeates the lives of arguably the whole world’s population.

To some merit, one can argue that since the early 20^th century, when Disney entered the stage, the entertainment industry has been occupied by titans. Using economics phrasing, it is an industry in which certain firms can achieve significant market power. Today, for example, Disney, Netflix, and Amazon can be thought of as the top firms that dominate the streaming world; MrBeast and PewDiePie, with over 400 million combined subscribers on YouTube, can be viewed as creators who wield significant power to impact viewer trends on the platform; And Taylor Swift, without much doubt, reigns supreme in the music realm.

In this article, we shall take along some of the aforementioned giants in the entertainment industry as examples to analyze the future relationship between information technology and entertainment. How will developments in AI, online distribution networks, spatial computing, and other technologies impact the outlook and composition of the entertainment industry?

The central argument of interest here is that new technologies lower the barriers of entry to produce entertainment content. Making and distributing content requires filming and distribution technologies and networks. Today, both types of technologies are advancing at an astonishing pace. As phones become more powerful and capable of filming and editing high-quality content, anyone with a phone can record videos or live streams. As platforms like TikTok and YouTube Shorts grow viral, these videos and live streams can be made accessible to billions of people free of charge. It is pretty mind-bending to imagine that more content is thrusted onto YouTube every hour than Disney+ holds in its entire streaming catalog. Moreover, with augmented reality (AR) and AI software improvements, we can only expect a greater diversity of creativity in the entertainment industry.

These technologies’ secondary impacts on entertainment firms, beyond lowering entry barriers, constitute a more complex narrative. First, companies and creators producing middling content will likely suffer exponential decreases in popularity and favorable reviews. This is especially the case for broadcast television, as viewers have gradually switched to streaming services. The Nielsen ratings – a relatively authoritative third-party rating system that ranks and compares different entertainment categories and platforms – for 2018-2019 showed a 7.3 million viewer decline in primetime since 2014-2015. It was not necessarily that television broadcasters suddenly stopped producing good shows. Rather, it was that the content broadcast television presented to the audience were relatively more tedious and less eye-catching captivating than those put forth by Netflix, with more dazzling special effects and a more powerful platform provided by more advanced information technologies.

What about firms at the top of the entertainment “food chain” consistently producing high-quality content? The picture becomes more unpredictable. On the one hand, even if information technologies lower barriers of entry and send in a flurry of content creators into entertainment, these titans might still withstand the test. Even without utilizing the latest information technologies, Disney, Netflix, and Amazon's content might appeal to a large pool of loyal viewers. Netflix and Amazon have more than 200 million direct subscribers and many more followers who eagerly await the release of new TV episodes. The saying that “when anyone can watch anything, people flock to the best” rings true today.

However, novel technology simultaneously equips those lower down the entertainment food chain with the ability to reach the top. Game engines, for example, have revolutionized the gaming industry by providing easily accessible tools and existing ideas that greatly simplify the creation of new games. By utilizing these tools, such as prebuilt models for rendering graphics and managing animations, individuals and small teams who are unicorns in the gaming industry can take the chance to compete with much larger studios. As such technologies spread, non-American or non-European game developers are the first beneficiaries. Chinese game developers, for example, have already produced international hits, including Tencent’s “Honor of Kings” and the recent “Black Myth: Wukong.” In the future, improving information technologies might shatter the oligopolistic nature of the gaming market and split many channels through which new global developers can ascend to the top.

Aside from the gaming world, consider the future of the filming world. Non-American film studios, until recently, found it challenging to nail first-class special effects. No longer. With the advent and rapid development of generative AI, which already makes detailed, high-resolution videos, these studios may be able to render incredible special effects speedily. Generative AI can help create realistic environments, enhance CGI characters, enhance motion capture, simulate complex natural effects, and power many more indispensable tasks that otherwise require acquiring costly devices or technologies. Once the cost to produce and render plummets, many more aspiring film artists can present their creativity on the screens. Therefore, top film producers’ work might face far greater competition from those produced by smaller, seemingly less popular studios.

To recap, due to improvements in information technology, there might be a “free market of information and creativity” in the entertainment industry. This trend begs the question, on the micro level, how will developments in information technology impact individual artists and entertainers? To formulate an answer, we can begin by thinking, in a most creative way, about how novel information technologies might serve the current phenomenon of music entertainment: Taylor Swift.

First, suppose that algorithms in AI-powered platforms, such as music apps, experience a marked improvement in their accuracy in deciphering their users’ preferences. Ms. Swift can deliver highly personalized experiences to her fans in this hypothetical case. As a rudimentary example, she could utilize AI to make individualized playlists and send well-tailored messages. Powered by the might of algorithms that so accurately capture her fans’ favorite songs and events, Ms. Swift could establish a much deeper personal connection with her fans.

Now, consider another hypothetical future where AR and VR technologies become portable and comfortable to wear daily (i.e., Apple has finally produced a Vision Pro that can be easily worn around all day long). Once Ms. Swift becomes fully aware of this progression in spatial computing technology, she can redesign her concerts so that her many fans unable to attend in person for whatever reason can nonetheless tune in thanks to VR. Just picture a fan virtually on a “front-row” seat attending a concert through a VR headset, complete with interactive elements like song requests. In this case, spatial computing vastly democratizes access to her performances, expanding her global reach even further.

On the flip side, is there a chance that Ms. Swift’s dominance might wane due to improvements in the algorithms of TikTok and other video platforms? Surely. As explained above, if such improvements lower barriers to entry into music entertainment, then Ms. Swift must tackle the challenge of maintaining visibility against a legion of newer artists boasting their unique music styles. If we take this argument a step ahead, algorithmic bias might not recommend Ms. Swift’s content and instead recommend the algorithm’s favored artists to the feed of the platform’s users. Perhaps the millions upon millions of die-hard “Swifties” will still declare their unwavering support for her. But what about those newcomers to the music world, eager to find the first artist who makes the strongest appeal to their taste? If they rely, consciously or not, on biased algorithm recommendations, then Ms. Swift might not be able to acquire as many more new fans as she would have preferred.

So far, we have seen that information technologies paint a convoluted future image where opportunities and challenges abound for the entire entertainment industry – from gaming to film to streaming to music. Technology is shaking things up in many more ways than those mentioned in this article. For example, the accelerating development of online distribution technologies has incentivized tech companies that previously were only interested in making hardware and software for entertainment. In 2022, Apple, not Disney, won the best-picture Oscar with “CODA,” a comedy-drama. That was only three years after the Silicon Valley titan entered the film business. The case with Apple shows that new technologies not only equip smaller, less experienced content creators with the skills and platform to make their mark, but they also entice complete newcomers to the industry to expand their businesses.

A more fundamental question to consider is how information technologies influence human creativity. Traditionally, human creativity relies on past experiences and human-to-human interactions. Will AI upend this tradition? Or will humans still resort to their past and relations with others to compose? Or will AI help creators relive past experiences and enhance interpersonal interactions to such an extent that they significantly boost creativity? This final scenario deserves more attention. True, information technologies rarely deliver an absolute era of boom. However, they have always crafted a new dimension in creating and disseminating thoughts and fantasies. Another successful era is indeed not beyond our reach.

信息技术、信息的产生和传播，以及依赖于信息生产或传播的产业之间相互交织的关系，一直是人类社会发展模式的基础。印刷术问世后，原先由天主教会控制的信息垄断局面荡然无存。随之而来的书籍和其他资料的快速出版与发行的时代给欧洲及其他地区带来了巨大的影响。而现今，娱乐业则是信息技术发展的最新受益者。从迪士尼公主、YouTube名人到布鲁诺-马尔斯（Bruno Mars）与泰勒-斯威夫特（Taylor Swift），这个不断扩大的产业编织了一张复杂而强大的情感之网，渗透到全世界人民的生活中。

可以说，自20世纪初迪士尼登上舞台以来，娱乐业一直是一个由巨头占据的行业。用经济学的说法，这是一个某些公司可以获得巨大市场垄断力量的行业。例如，如今迪士尼、Netflix与亚马逊可以被视为主导流媒体世界的顶级公司；在YouTube上拥有合计超过4亿订阅者的MrBeast和PewDiePie可以被视为拥有巨大影响力的创作者，能够引领平台上观众的偏好；而泰勒-斯威夫特毫无疑问是音乐领域的霸主。本文将以上述娱乐业巨头为例，分析信息技术与娱乐业的未来关系。人工智能、在线发行网络、空间计算等技术的发展将如何影响娱乐业的前景和构成？

我们感兴趣的核心论点是，新技术降低了制作娱乐内容的准入门槛。制作和传播内容需要拍摄和传播技术与网络。如今，这两类技术都在以惊人的速度发展。随着手机功能越来越强大，拍摄、编辑高质量内容的能力越来越强，任何人只要有一部手机，就可以录制视频或进行直播。随着微信视频号、抖音与YouTube Shorts等平台的疯狂传播，数十亿人可以免费观看这些视频与直播流媒体。想象一下，每小时推送到YouTube上的内容比Disney+拥有的整个流媒体目录还要多。此外，随着增强现实（AR）与人工智能软件的改进，我们只能期待娱乐业的创造力更加多样化。

现在，这些技术除了降低准入门槛外，还对娱乐公司产生了二级影响，这构成了一种更为复杂的叙事。首先，制作中等内容的公司与创作者很可能会遭受人气及好评指数级下降的影响。广播电视尤其如此，因为观众已逐渐转向流媒体服务。尼尔森（Nielsen）收视率--一个相对权威的第三方收视率系统，对不同的娱乐类别和平台进行排名和比较--2018-2019年的收视率显示，自2014-2015年以来，黄金时段的观众人数下降了730万。这并不一定是电视广播公司突然不再制作好节目了，而是与拥有更炫目特效和更先进信息技术提供的更强大平台的Netflix相比，广播电视呈现给观众的内容相对更加乏味，也没有那么吸引眼球。

那么，处于娱乐“食物链”顶端、持续生产高质量内容的公司又如何呢？情况变得更加难以预测。一方面，即使信息技术降低了准入门槛，大批内容创作者涌入娱乐业，这些巨头仍有可能经受住考验。即使不利用最新的信息技术，迪士尼、Netflix和亚马逊引以为傲的内容也可能吸引一大批忠实观众。Netflix与亚马逊拥有超过2亿的直接订阅者，还有更多的追随者在翘首以盼新电视剧的上映。“当任何人都能观看任何节目时，人们当然就会对最好的节目趋之若鹜”，这句话如今依然适用。

然而，与此同时，新技术也使那些处于娱乐食物链低端的人具备了登上顶端的能力。以游戏引擎为例，它通过提供易于获取的工具和现有理念，大大简化了新游戏的制作，从而彻底改变了游戏产业。通过利用这些工具，如用于渲染图形和管理动画的预制模型，作为独角兽进入游戏行业的个人与小型团队可以抓住机会，与规模大得多的工作室竞争。随着这些技术的推广，非美国或非欧洲的游戏开发商成为首批受益者。例如，中国的游戏开发商已经创造出了国际热门游戏，包括腾讯的《王者荣耀》和最近的《黑神话：悟空》。未来，信息技术的进步可能会打破游戏市场的寡头垄断，分化出许多渠道，让全球新开发者能够登上顶峰。

除了游戏界，我们还可以看看电影界的未来。直到最近，非美国的电影制片厂还发现，要制作出一流的特效十分困难。现在不会了。随着生成式人工智能的出现和快速发展，这些电影制片厂也许能够快速呈现令人难以置信的特效。生成式人工智能可以帮助创建逼真的环境、增强CGI角色、增强动作捕捉、模拟复杂的自然效果，以及执行更多不可或缺的任务，而这些任务在没有人工智能前都需要购置昂贵的设备或技术。一旦制作和渲染特效的成本大幅降低，更多有抱负的电影艺术家就能在银幕上展现他们的创意。因此，展望未来，顶级电影制片人的作品可能会面临来自那些规模较小、似乎并不太受欢迎的工作室的更大竞争。

总而言之，由于信息技术的进步，娱乐业可能会出现一个“信息和创意的自由市场”。这一趋势引出了一个问题：在微观层面上，信息技术的发展将如何影响个体的艺术家与娱乐家？为了找到答案，我们可以首先以一种最具创造性的方式来思考，新颖的信息技术会如何服务于当前的音乐娱乐现象级人物：泰勒-斯威夫特。

首先，假设人工智能平台（如音乐应用程序）的算法在解读用户偏好方面的准确性有了显著提高。在这种假设情况下，斯威夫特女士可以为她的粉丝提供高度个性化的体验。举个最简单的例子，她可以利用人工智能制作个性化播放列表，发送量身定制的信息。斯威夫特女士的算法能够准确捕捉粉丝们最喜欢的歌曲和事件，在这种强大算法的支持下，她可以与粉丝们建立更深层次的个人联系。

现在，请考虑另一个假设的未来，即AR和VR技术变得便携、舒适，可以每天佩戴（例如，苹果公司终于生产出了一款新的Vision Pro，可以轻松佩戴一整天）。一旦斯威夫特女士充分意识到空间计算技术的这种进步，她就可以重新设计自己的演唱会，这样她的众多歌迷无论因为什么原因无法亲临现场，都可以通过VR收看演唱会。试想一下，歌迷通过VR头戴设备坐在“前排”座位上观看演唱会，还能参与点歌等互动环节。在这种情况下，空间计算极大地丰富了她的表演，进一步扩大了她的全球影响力。

反过来说，由于TikTok和其他视频平台算法的改进，斯威夫特女士的主导地位是否有可能减弱呢？当然有可能。正如上文所解释的，如果这些改进降低了音乐娱乐的准入门槛，那么斯威夫特女士就必须应对挑战，在众多标榜自己独特音乐风格的新晋艺人面前保持知名度。如果我们将这一论点向前推进一步，算法的偏见可能不会推荐斯威夫特女士的内容，而是向平台用户推荐算法青睐的艺人。也许，数以百万计的“霉粉”们还是会表示对她坚定不移的支持。但是，那些初入音乐世界、急于找到第一个最能迎合自己口味的艺人的新听众呢？如果他们有意无意地依赖有偏见的算法推荐，那么斯威夫特女士可能无法如愿获得更多新粉丝。

迄今为止，我们已经看到，对于整个娱乐产业--从游戏到电影，从流媒体到音乐--信息技术描绘了一幅错综复杂的未来图景，其中机遇与挑战并存。除了本文提到的这些方面，技术还在许多方面改变着一切。例如，在线分销技术的加速发展刺激了那些以前只对生产娱乐硬件和软件感兴趣的科技公司。2022年，凭借喜剧片《CODA》获得奥斯卡最佳影片奖的是苹果公司，而不是迪士尼。那时，这家硅谷巨头进军电影业仅三年时间。苹果公司的案例表明，新技术不仅为规模较小、经验较少的内容创作者提供了技能和平台，使他们能够大展拳脚，而且还吸引了完全陌生的业外企业拓展他们的业务范围。

一个更基本的问题是，信息技术如何影响人类的创造力。传统上，人类的创造力依赖于过去的经验和人与人之间的互动。人工智能会颠覆这一传统吗？还是人类仍将借助自己的过去以及与他人的关系来创作？或者说，人工智能是否会帮助创作者重温过去的经历并加强人际互动，从而为创造力带来巨大的边际提升？最后一种情况应该得到更多关注。诚然，信息技术很少带来一个绝对繁荣的时代。然而，它们总是为思想和幻想的创造与传播开辟了一个新的维度。从这个角度出发去畅想，另一个成功的时代怎能不会遥不可及。