Prisoners of Geography 6 - India, Pakistan, and the Nukes
In 1947 the “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists” got together and created the Doomsday Clock. The Doomsday Clock is a measurement of threats to humanity from scientific, diplomatic, and technical aspects. The closer to “midnight” the clock is set, the more dangerous an event or situation is.
The feud between India and Pakistan always influences to what time the clock is set. Many experts indeed believe that today’s conflicts can escalate into a full-scale nuclear war. The recent crisis in 2019 shows that even if both sides possess nuclear arsenals, nuclear deterrence is not always likely to work, especially when there are militants the governments do not have control over, operating in a border region that both sides consider vital. While India and Pakistan can threaten each other with nuclear strikes, like during the Cold War, they can only hope that the other side will back down. But there is guarantee. Also, according to political scientists Christopher Clary and Vipin Narang, India is considering ways to deploy forces to attack Pakistan’s nuclear bases preemptively. Unlike the U.S. and the U.S.S.R., India and Pakistan share a border, and their tension could erupt into a nuclear conflict.
Nuclear disarmament and control for both countries are needed, and the superpowers should step in. A problem in the India and Pakistan case will be to convince the governments of the two sides to step down. The U.S. and China should try to convince the governments and factions of India and Pakistan to disarm their warheads while militarily supervising the two countries in doing so. Pakistan will be more willing to listen to China, because China is one of its most important allies, whereas India will be more likely to listen to the U.S., as those two countries are allies to some degree. The U.S. and China should try to achieve a rather cooperative relationship in the case of nuclear disarmament of India and Pakistan. The two superpowers must understand that a nuclear conflict threatens humankind.
From my point of view, a nuclear war between India and Pakistan is quite likely if the current relationship continues to worsen. The chance of nuclear warfare is larger when the two countries forget MAD, and only care about annihilating the other side. That mindset partially explains why the Doomsday Clock is set only 100 seconds from midnight in January 2020, the closest in many years.
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