Prisoners of Geography 2 - Geopolitics of South China Sea
Today, oceans are imperative for the prosperity of a country. The South China Sea is no different, as it is the key passage from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific, and vice versa, which makes it avital trade nexus for various countries. China relies on the trade flowing through this body of water. Statistics reveal that about 80% of China’s imports, namely oil, must pass the Malacca Strait to arrive in China. However, this ocean is a hotly contested region. More than seven countries have territorial claims. China drew the “Nine-Dash Line” covering more than 90% of the South China Sea. The U.S. in return, rallied its allies to form the “First Island Chain,” capable of restricting China’s actions and strangling China in the event of hostilities. The Malacca Strait, especially, is a choke point. The U.S. indirectly controls this strait, consequently holding sway over the trade of oil and mineral deposits, and most ships need to pass through it to reach the Pacific.China should use a combined soft and hard power diplomatic strategy in this region. On one hand, China needs to keep a peaceful relationship with Singapore, Malaysia, and the U.S., because these countries control the Malacca Strait. However, on the other hand, China should retain its predominance in the region, and mobilize its navy if foreign states’ army ships sail too far into the “Nine-Dash Line.” This is not hegemony; this is a defensive move. Historically, over the last several millennia the land-based Chinese, who have formed non-expansionistic farming societies, were not usually hegemonic. Attempting to claim the South China Sea is merely an act to protect China’s economy from total collapse, as a country’s economy cannot be competent without open trade. Since today the world economy partially relies on China’s economy, China’s actions in the South China Sea should not be considered as absolute supremacy. Thus, although frequent diplomacies with countries bordering the South China Sea, maybe aside from China can work, the best way is to attain a deterrence effect between China and the other states, in particular the U.S., militarily. This is the right path to peace in the region. China will not terminate its territorial claims, because it’s a growing giant that needs space and guaranteed energy access. However, that territorial insistence must be conducted responsibly. The U.S. might want to recalibrate its definition of China and redefine relations, resulting in a new deterrence effect on the region of the South China Sea. This is the best method to solve the crisis of the South China Sea and allow various countries to cooperate harmoniously in the region.
